OPEC February Meeting Outlook: What to Expect

The OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is a gathering of oil-producing countries that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries that have joined the OPEC+ production cuts agreement.


The meeting aims to discuss and coordinate oil production policies to stabilize global oil markets. During the meetings, ministers from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries review the current state of the global oil market, analyze supply and demand dynamics, and discuss the need for any adjustments to oil production levels. The main goal is to achieve price stability and avoid significant fluctuations in the oil market.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has released its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025, with unchanged expectations of 2.2 million barrels per day and 1.8 million barrels daily. The report highlights China's economic recovery as a major driver of oil demand growth, with demand for all petroleum products expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2025. Non-OECD countries' demand is expected to reach 104.4 million barrels per day, while demand in OECD countries is expected to grow by 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 100,000 barrels per day in 2025.


OPEC maintains its global economic growth forecast at 2.6% for 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, interpreting growth expectations as low inflation and expected interest rate cuts. However, geopolitical developments and international trade relations may affect growth. OPEC predicts growth in Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the United States but warns about the potential impact on financial policies and growth dynamics.


According to the group's report, the projection for global oil demand growth for 2024 will remain the same as last month's estimate, which was 2.2 million barrels per day. This is in line with the 2.46 million bpd growth in demand for oil this year, which was also helped by better economic activity in China.


"As 2023 draws to an end, the OPEC Secretariat remains cautiously optimistic about the fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in 2024. In response to the broad spectrum of uncertainties surrounding the global oil market, many countries participating in DoC announced in November 2023 additional voluntary adjustments in 1Q24 to help maintain stability and balance in global oil markets. Indeed, countries participating in DoC will continue on these commitments to achieve and sustain a stable oil market and provide long-term guidance for the market," OPEC stated in the report.


On Feb 1st, OPEC+ is unlikely to decide on oil policy, as the group would probably decide on its oil production levels for April and beyond in the upcoming weeks. They also mentioned that a significant ministerial panel meeting on Feb 1st, 2024, would be too soon to decide on a future output strategy.


OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+ and chaired by Russia, will meet virtually to discuss matters of concern. As the group is known, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) has the authority to recommend policies or call an all-OPEC+ conference.




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