AN OVERVIEW OF AUDUSD

TECHNICAL VIEW

The AUDUSD pair has indeed been showing a consistent bearish trend on the 4-hour time frame. Meanwhile, there was a key support around 0.6701 that held the price since the 10th of October. During the New York session yesterday being October 15th, the pair broke and closed below a three-week low of 0.6692. This break suggests that the next potential support level around 0.6650 is coming into focus, as it represents both a significant technical and psychological level for traders.

            If the 0.6650 support is breached, analysts are pointing towards the low from Wednesday, September 11th at 0.6622 as the next possible target which could serve as a further downside objective. However, analysts also suggest that if 0.6650 holds, it might provide an opportunity for the pair to reverse direction, potentially catching its breath before a rebound.

            On the flip side, a break above 0.6759 would indicate a shift in market sentiment, signaling a potential trend reversal. This would be a critical level to watch as it may open the door to higher targets. Further break out of these levels aren’t ruled out.

Fig. 1 AUDUSD, 4H Trading view

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW 

Tomorrow being Thursday, October 17th, at 4:30 AM GMT+4, the markets will focus on the AUD employment change and unemployment rate, with forecasts set at 25.2k and 4.2% respectively. Later in the day, at 4:30 PM GMT+4 the U.S core retail sales, retail sales, and unemployment claims will be released with expectations of 0.1%, 0.3% and 241K respectively. Additionally, the U.S crude oil inventory report will be on the wire at 7PM GMT +4.

To wrap up the trading week on Friday October 18th, the US building permits data and a speech from Waller will be in focus. These economic releases and events have the potential to significantly influence market prices, making it essential for traders to exercise caution and implement proper risk management strategies.