Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are scheduled for release by the Energy Information Administration today at 18:30 GMT+4. In order to draft potential scenarios of the crude oil inventories data, let’s analyze the historical data provided in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
Figure 2: Recent Percentage Change in Crude Oil Prices, tradingview.com
Figure 1 shows the movement of crude oil inventories so far in 2023, while Figure 2 displays the most recent percentage change in crude prices following each data release. On 12th April for example, there was a 0.12% increase in crude oil prices at the 30-minute mark following the news (Figure 2). When we compare this data to the information in Figure 1, we can observe that on the same date, crude oil inventories declined.
Observing the data releases along with crude oil price changes, we notice a consistent pattern from the dates mentioned in both Figures 1 and 2. Whenever there is an increase in inventories, crude oil prices tends to fall, and conversely, when inventories fall, crude oil prices tend to increase. To elaborate more, when there is more supply of the commodity, the price usually tends to fall, and vice versa.
As per Investing.com, For today’s reading, crude oil inventories are forecast to decline from 3M barrels to -1.3M barrels, according to Investing.com.
If the data comes out as expected, will the above assumption hold true, or could prices break away from their previous patterns?
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