US Jobs Growth Could Break Below 200,000 For The First Time Since December 2020

Today, at 4:30 pm Amman time, the US jobs data will be released, and the markets are awaiting what the real reading will be like compared to what is expected and

compared to the previous reading. Expectations indicate that the US economy added about 193 thousand jobs during January 2023 compared to 223 thousand jobs

in the previous reading. And if the predictions are true, then this means:

  • The pace of employment is the weakest since December 2020
  • It is also the sixth consecutive decline in employment data.
  • Thus, this means a continued decline in employment below a support level that has been extended for more than two years


Latest monthly US jobs data chart

 (Figure 1): Latest Monthly US jobs data, CFI research department 


The jobs report is crucial in determining interest rate hike expectations and final interest rate expectations during the upcoming FOMC meetings, so Analysts expect if

the employment report is stronger than expected, the stock market and gold may decline and the dollar will rise due to fears that the Federal Reserve will be more

tightening with Raising interest rates, while a reading within or below expected may increase hopes that the Federal Reserve will deal with lenient interest rates, and

this may drag the dollar to decline and push the stock and gold markets to rise.


Therefore, when reading job data expectations today, we have to balance between the opportunity to continue reducing the pace of raising interest rates and

between the return of tightening and raising interest rates at a higher pace, and in general, Analyst expects that the issuance of these data will be accompanied by

fluctuations in the financial markets, Considering that employment and inflation data are relied upon by the Fed in reading the economic situation before any change

in interest rates.


With a reminder that the initial market reaction, regardless of the nature of the real reading, may be sharp and volatile at its beginning before the market begins to

return to stability, so it must be noted, and it is necessary to remember the golden rule: traders have different ideas and convictions in the way they interpret the

information issued, and therefore it cannot be Prices move 100% according to that information.


The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.  Any view expresseddoes not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell.  The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI.  Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.