The EU retail sales for September will be released Tuesday November 8th, 2022, at which the MoM reading is forecasted to be 0.3%. Given that the last reading for August was at -0.3%, September 2022 MoM forecast indicate a significant difference in retail sales performance as it would return to the positive territory after three months of negative readings.
The highest increase for both the Euro area and EU in August was recorded in automotive fuels by 3.2% and 2.9% respectively followed by nonfood products which increased by 0.2% in the Euro area and 0.1% in the member states. On the other hand, a significant decrease in mail order and internet print in the Euro area and EU by 3.8% and 3.2% respectively.
Retail sales on YoY basis followed the same path, a decrease of 2% in the Euro area and 1.3% in the EU while apparently automotive fuels increased by 5.1% and 5.5% YoY. Corresponding to September retail sales the consumer price index recorded one of its highest increases YoY. In September and October 2022, the CPI recorded 9.9% and 10.7% compared to 9.1 in August and 8.9% in July. Comparing the MoM increase, the CPI spiked from 0.6% in August 2022 to 1.2% in September and 1.5% in October same year. On the other hand, core inflation rate MoM was at a modest increase from 4.8% in September to 5% in October.
September retail sales reading will be announced amid the European central bank’s intensive efforts to tame down inflation of which energy and fuel consumption is highly contributing to. The reading will reflect how effective was Christine laggard’s decision of hiking interest rate 75 basis point in September 2022 to reach 1.25% versus a no change since July’s hike of 0.5%. The ECB current interest rate is 2%.
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