The world is witnessing one of its toughest moments which would reshape geographical, political & economic orders for the next decade. As the global economy was digging for recovery solution from the COVID-19 impacts including sky rocketing commodity prices, inflation, unemployment & interest rate decisions, the Russian-Ukrainian war was a headwind for the recovery. There is no doubt that the current global disruption will enforce negative consequences on all economies however, these consequences would be relative and this is the core findings of this content; analyzing relative performance for major stock indices thus prioritizing equity markets for long and short positions.
The United States S&P500 performance: Ranking the indices performance versus the S&P 500, it is concluded that Indian SENEX, Japanese Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Saudi’s TASI & UK’s FTSE are outperforming, ranked from the best performing to the least respectively. However, there is higher acceleration witnessed for the S&P 500 performance versus Hong Kong’s Hang Seng since February 2021 compared to the Japanese Nikkei. On the other hand, The S&P is outperforming both the Chinese index and the UAE’s DFM index with lower momentum for the S&P versus Dubai. Finally, the STOXX600, Europe’s index has been poorly performing against the S&P.
The Indian SENSEX performance: Comparing the Indian index performance to indices which outperformed the S&P500, the Index outperformed its pears recording the highest performance against the UK’s FTSE followed by the Saudi’s TASI associated with deceleration in performance momentum, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng with an acceleration in performance momentum and the Japanese Nikkei respectively.
Indian SENSEX monthly technical Analysis: The index reached all time high on October 2021 at 62,245 and the index return was 138% since March 2020 bottom. Currently the index is at 23% downward correction. Maintaining the current; support levels near the 20EMA would give higher probability for the uptrend sustainability.
US S&P500 monthly technical Analysis: The index reached all time high on January 2022 at 4,820 and the index return was 119% since March 2020 bottom. Currently the index is at 23% downward correction. Maintaining the current; support levels near the 20EMA would give higher probability for the uptrend sustainability.
Saudi’s TASI Monthly technical analysis: The index rallied on April 2020 recording 111% return till February 2022. Maintaining the $11954 support level would promote the index to test July 2006 high price at 13500. Longer projected target for the index is 18,600.
UAE DFM Index monthly technical analysis: The index rallied on April 2020 recording 98% return till February 2022. Maintaining the 100 EMA support level at 3200 would promote the index to test 3,700 resistance zone followed by 4,200.
Aside of the developed macro view for the relative performance analysis, momentum acceleration was obvious since Q4 2020 which was enforced by the current global political turbulence that was preceded by the COVID pandemic. Accordingly, the indices ranking given the current global economic status would be Saudi’s TASI, UAE’s Dubai Index, S&P500 peered with Indian SENEX followed by the UK’s 100 & China’s composite index.
The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI. Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.