November US Manufacturing PMI

Investors wait for the United States Manufacturing PMI announcement next Wednesday 22 November, For more information on the health of the industrial sector in the current tightening policies. Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by S&P Global for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies.


The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment, and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed and to uncover opportunities. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.


S&P global manufacturing PMI was at 50.4 points in October 2022, and it is expected to reach 51.0 by November 2022.


The S&P Global US Composite PMI was revised higher to 48.2 in October 2022 from a preliminary estimate of 47.3, compared with September's 49.5. The latest data signaled a fourth consecutive month of contraction in the private sector, driven by a sharper decline in service activity. Meanwhile, manufacturing output rose marginally.


Overall new business dropped back into contraction, with dollar strength and inflation weighing on new export orders which fell further; while employment increased slightly and backlogs of work posted a solid fall. On the price front, inflationary pressures softened amid reports of reductions in some material costs which were passed through to customers via concessions. Finally, output expectations for the year ahead weakened. 


Source: Markit Economics


The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for fourth-quarter growth moved up to 4.4% from a previous estimate of 4% after the stronger retail sales report.


According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. experts, the US will experience a "mild" recession in 2022 as a result of interest rate increases that might result in the loss of more than 1 million jobs, and the Federal Reserve will switch its focus to lowering borrowing rates in 2024.


According to research released on Wednesday by economists Michael Feroli and Daniel Silver, the Fed would likely increase its benchmark rate by 50 basis points in December and by 25 basis points at each of the first two meetings of 2023 to reach a target range of 4.75% to 5% before halting. According to economists polled by Bloomberg this month, there is a 65% likelihood that the US will experience a recession within the next 12 months, with the Fed's interest rate reaching a top of 5% in 2023 and falling to 3% by the end of 2024.


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