Weekly Market Outlook


The safe haven investment found it’s place again for Monday opening (Figure 1 ), as the dollar index is bouncing from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

This level happens to be at the psychological level 105 dollar. The next strong resistance zone to look out for is between 108.2 and 108.5.


Figure 1: TradingView, Dollar Index


Consequently EUR/USD pair retraced from its quarter high value of 1.05 forming a possible evening start candlestick formation on the weekly timeframe, which might lead to the price to test a strong support line at the price of 1.01846.

USD/JPY and USD/CNY pairs in correlation with the dollar index are gaining in strength, benefiting from the strength in dollar and the weakness in the JPY and the CNY, as the Asian market is under pressure due to increase in COVID cases in China, leading to further lockdowns.

This week’s FOMC will be a great indictor for the dollar’s strength from now till year 2023, as the interest rate decision for December will be revealed



Gold declined last week by 1.2% as a result of the rise in the US dollar after US retail sales came more than expecting, rising to 1.3%.

This indicates that there is still strong demand for goods and services, which increased fears of rising inflation despite the ease in the previous four months.

Technically the attached chart (Figure 2) shows how gold broke the important support levels close to 1754 dollars per ounce, in addition to breaking the moving average for the last 50 days.

Trading below these levels will constitute negative pressure on gold prices, while the return of prices to trade above levels of 1768 dollars per ounce will be positive for gold in the medium term.

As for silver, (Figure 3) it broke the important support near $21.2 an ounce, and it is now trading near the important support level of $20.5 an ounce, as breaking these levels is expected to constitute a drop in prices.


Figure (2): Metatrader5, XAU/USD, CFI Brokerage





Figure(3): MetaTrader5, XAU/USD, CFI Brokerage



US stocks ended the week marginally lower after giving back some of their significant gains from the previous week. Some of last week's gains were reduced by the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Big Tech lost 1.1% for the week, and the S&P 500 lost 0.7% as Fed tightening expectations increased. With a w/t rate of >5%, this is 20bp lower than the pre-CPI peak but almost a full 25bp higher than the most recent low. This week, the rise in terminal Fed rate predictions completely reversed the decline in post-CPI "pause hope."

Wall Street Economists Split on Whether Fed Cuts Rates in 2023. The relatively broad consensus among economists and market participants on the immediate outlook for hikes erodes the further you go into 2023. The Fed has allowed its balance sheet to shrink by nearly $400 billion from the peak earlier this year, to $8.6 trillion as of the latest data yesterday.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he favors slowing the pace of interest rate increases, with no more than 1 percentage point more of hikes, to try to ensure the economy has a soft landing. Boston Fed President Susan Collins reiterated her view that options are open for the size of the December interest-rate increase, including the possibility of a 75 basis-point move.

The 6-month growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in October and is at levels that have signaled a high probability of recession in the past (2020, 2008, and 2001)

UBS Global Wealth Management expects the dollar to continue strengthening into the end of the year as it believes the market has got ahead of itself on when the Fed could start to give easing signals.




To date, 94% of the S&P500 reported their quarterly earnings

Expectations have also been declining for 2023, and Goldman Sachs recently lowered its prediction for 2023 S&P 500 EPS growth to zero, citing deteriorating profit margins. Companies, in the aggregate to date, are reporting earnings higher than the estimates by 1.8%, a percentage below the 1-year, 5-years, and 10-year average, and if turned out to be the final figure, it would be the 2nd lowest surprise figure since Q3 2013, according to FactSet.

Among the S&P 500 sectors, defensive stocks outperformed with utilities up 2%, real estate up 1.3%, and healthcare up 1.2%.

As oil prices fell, the energy sector declined by 0.9% due to worries about weakening Chinese demand and further increases in U.S. interest rates.


Some of the earnings from last week

The Gap Inc (GPS)  shares were up by 7.6% after the firm’s quarterly revenues and profits exceeded Wall Street estimates with EPS of $0.71 versus an estimated EPS of $-0.2 and revenues of $4.04B versus an estimate of $3.83.

Walmart Inc. (WMT) reported a y-o-y increase of 8.74% to reach $152.81B versus an estimate of $146.8B and EPS of $1.5 versus an estimate of $1.32.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reported a y-o-y decrease of 17% in revenues to reach $5.93B versus an estimate of $5.82B, and a basic EPS of $0.27 versus an estimated EPS of $0.7 with an outlook by the company of around $6B for Q4 2022. 


Some of the Upcoming Earnings during the upcoming week (21st-25th November) 


Current EPS 

Expected EPS 

Current Revenues 

Expected Revenues 

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)





Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY)





HP Inc. (HPQ)





Deere & Company (DE)







Last week was not impressive for oil bulls as both closed at the lower boundary of their trading range. WTI was down 9.86% closing at $80 and Brent closed last week at $87.82, down 8.34%.

Although the YoY inflation outlook in the US sent optimistic signals for the markets together with China easing few restrictions on ingoing foreigners, Europe’s inflation reading and China lock down still looming its economic effect on oil demand. The sideway facing oil reflects diverging forecast between the international energy association the Us energy administration association and the OPEC+, while both have increased their forecast for Q4 2022 demand while the latter was bearish. WTI closed near the trading range low boundary at $80 after failing to retest the $90 weekly resistance zone signaling that the bearish sentiment is taking over.


US Natural gas

US natural gas secured modest demand and succeeded to open above November second week’s close prices - $6.10 (at which natural gas gave away 13%). Last week natural gas regained 5.60% capped within the second half’s prices. The chart sentiment is reflecting on the European union’s warning regarding Europe’s future demand vs inventories at which it advised further consumption cuts to avoid supply shortage. Accordingly, a bullish momentum might build up given that natural gas trades above $6.4 while a downturn would lead to a retest at $6.


The content published above has been prepared by CFI for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.  Any view expressed does not constitute a personal recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell.  The information provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it, and is not held out as independent investment research and may have been acted upon by persons connected with CFI.  Market data is derived from independent sources believed to be reliable, however, CFI makes no guarantee of its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of its use by recipients.