What To Watch Across Markets This Week: 19th February 2024

Last week was all about US and UK inflation data.

The US data showed that Core CPI came in at 3.9% YoY, higher than the expected figure of 3.7% YoY and unchanged from last month's reading. Meanwhile, CPI grew at 3.1% YoY, lower than the previous 3.4% but higher than the expected rate of 2.9%.

Core PPI came in at 2% YoY, higher than the 1.6% expected and higher than the previous 1.7%. The PPI came in at 0.9%, lower than the previous figure of 1% but higher than an expected 0.6%.

US Retail sales were another important release last week. The data showed retail sales had weakened significantly higher than expected. Retail sales rose by 0.65% compared to a previous increase of 5.31% YoY.

Core CPI in the UK came in lower than expected at 5.1% YoY compared to an expected figure of 5.2%. CPI also arrived lower than expected at 4% YoY, unchanged from the previous figure.

Last week's inflation data dimmed expectations for any monetary easing during upcoming central bank meetings, sending stocks lower by the end of the week.

The dollar index began the week at 104.20, barely moving from a five-week winning streak as traders changed their expectations for an upcoming rate cut.

This week, markets are expecting inflation data in Canada and Europe, along with PMI in the Eurozone and the US. Retail sales in Canada and Germany's economic performance data are also on investors' watchlists.


Monday 19th

The US stock market is closed today, celebrating Washington's Birthday.


Tuesday 20th

China is expected to publish its Loan Prime Rate Decision at 5:45 AM GMT+4 (Dubai Time), scheduled to be held at 3.45% after it left the MLF unchanged at 2.5% as expected.

Canada is expected to publish its Core CPI MoM at 5:30 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time). Canada's inflation is expected to have increased significantly by 0.4% compared to a previous decline of 0.3% MoM. Analysts say a higher-than-expected reading is usually bullish for the currency and vice versa.


Wednesday 21st

The FOMC Meeting minutes will be released at 11:00 PM GMT +4 (Dubai Time). The record offers a summary of the meeting held around three weeks earlier. The market watches the meeting minutes carefully for hints regarding the Fed's future monetary policy path.


Thursday 22nd

Several PMIs are set for release during the day. Europe is expected to publish the HCOB France Manufacturing and Services PMI at 12:15 AM GMT+4 (Dubai Time). Both manufacturing and services PMI in France are expected to strengthen but remain below the 50 mark. Services PMI is forecasted at 43.5, up from last month's figure of 43.1. Meanwhile, Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 46.1, higher than the 45.5 figure recorded last month.

Germany's Manufacturing PMI is also expected at 1:00 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time). Markets expect a rise in Germany's manufacturing sector, but still below the significant 50 mark.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI is expected at 48.5 compared to a previous figure of 47.9. Meanwhile, HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 47, up from 46.6 last month.

The Eurozone is also expected to release CPI for January. Inflation in Europe is forecasted to have weakened to 2.8% YoY compared to 2.9%. At the same time, Core CPI is expected at 3.3% compared to a previous figure of 3.4%.



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